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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 13 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 7-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to DET 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.53 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model