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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 59

Detroit Lions 10 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.90 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -2.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model