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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 58

Detroit Lions 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to CLE 13, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-D.Felton to CLE 13 for no gain (27-B.Price).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model