4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 24 for 10 yards (44-T.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.23 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP