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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 62

Houston Texans 12 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 14 for no gain (33-A.Moore). PENALTY on TEN-49-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.91 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model