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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 35

Houston Texans 12 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 11-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to TEN 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-24-T.Smith at TEN 5.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.24 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP