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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 23

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 40-D.Hilliard to HOU 18 for 5 yards (25-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.69 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model