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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 6-B.Kern punts 27 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.06 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP