Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 77

Houston Texans 19 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 41 for 16 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis). PENALTY on HOU-8-T.Brooks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model