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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 24

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(14:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 86-A.Firkser (23-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model