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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 19 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP