4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 19

Houston Texans 19 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.91 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 19, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model