Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 54

Houston Texans 22 – Tennessee Titans 13

(:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.72 EP
77% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -0.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model