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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.50 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model