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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 4-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to PHI 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at PHI 25 for 8 yards (50-A.Dowell).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model