Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(13:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to PHI 3, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 15 for 12 yards (45-G.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.39 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model