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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to PHI 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-53-Z.Baun.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.72 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model