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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to NO 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, and recovers at NO 36. 11-D.Harris to NO 36 for no gain (22-M.Epps).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.51 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model