Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 89

New Orleans Saints 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

(10:57) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to PHI 47, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at NO 40 for 13 yards (40-A.Armah).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.56 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 89, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model