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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 15

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.19 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model