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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 29

Philadelphia Eagles 30 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.53 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model