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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 33 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 8-A.Siposs punts 41 yards to NO 47, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Harris ran ob at PHI 39 for 14 yards (45-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.79 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 88, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model