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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to NO 26, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Harris to NO 34 for 8 yards (54-S.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model