Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 87

Philadelphia Eagles 33 – New Orleans Saints 19

(11:05) 8-A.Siposs punts 43 yards to NO 44, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-D.Harris to PHI 49 for 7 yards (21-A.Chachere, 22-M.Epps).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.29 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 87, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model