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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 19 – Philadelphia Eagles 33

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 19-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.07 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model