4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to LAC 2 for no gain (33-D.James; 92-J.Gaziano).

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model