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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 34 – Pittsburgh Steelers 34

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 68-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 34 for no gain (93-J.Schobert, 95-C.Wormley).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model