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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 34 – Los Angeles Chargers 34

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.87 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model