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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 10-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to WAS 23, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.86 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP