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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 43

Washington Commanders 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 1-D.Carter to CAR 25 for 18 yards (26-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.10 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model