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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 22-C.McCaffrey right end to WAS 35 for 15 yards (55-C.Holcomb). PENALTY on WAS-55-C.Holcomb, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 35.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.13 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model