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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 43

Washington Commanders 21 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(7:23) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 87-J.Bates to CAR 37 for 6 yards (26-D.Jackson) [53-B.Burns].

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.97 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model