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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 68

Washington Commanders 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to CAR 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 22 for 10 yards (51-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model