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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 10-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to WAS 23, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.51 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model