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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 19-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.59 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model