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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 19-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 28 for 18 yards (47-J.Harris; 51-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP