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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 19-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to JAX 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by [4].

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model