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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 16

Jacksonville Jaguars 11 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 15-M.Wright 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model