Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Atlanta Falcons 21

(1:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 10-L.Shenault.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.26 EP
65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EP