Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(6:03) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.87 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model