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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.15 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model