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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 15-T.Siemian right guard to NO 32 for 2 yards (99-H.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.74 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 28, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model