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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to BUF 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 35 for 11 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.73 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP