Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

(6:17) 4-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to BUF 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 26 for 1 yard (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.26 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model