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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Gillikin pass incomplete short left to 84-L.Humphrey.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model