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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 6 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to BUF 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 49 for 18 yards (24-D.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.02 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 84, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model