Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(3:31) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to BUF 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 27 for 10 yards (38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.09 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model