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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP