Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 7 – Miami Dolphins 14

(7:30) 10-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to MIA 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-J.Waddle to MIA 27 for 7 yards (42-S.Franklin, 85-M.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 77, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model