Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 10 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 10-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -2.88 EP

KICK -1.55 EP

28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
72% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model